We have a new book chapter out, looking into future exposure to 15-day heat waves in the world’s 20 largest megacity-regions under different combinations of SSP, RCP, and urbanisation scenarios. Snippet from the conclusions:
This study presents the results of urban spatial simulations based upon SSPs, which indicate the emergence of extremely large megacity-regions around the world by 2100. These data are then matched with climate data for very warm (> 42°C) 15-day heatwaves for different RCPs. The combination suggests that even under strong global responses to climate change, large populations (1 billion) within these very large cities (1 billion) are projected to be exposed to these conditions in the future and these numbers could double under other development pathways.
Peter J. Marcotullio, Carsten Keßler and Balázs M. Fekete (2020) Future megacity-regions and heatwave exposure. In: Danielle Labbé and André Sorensen, eds.: Handbook of Megacities and Megacity-Regions, pp.309–326. Edward Elgar Publishing, ISBN: 978-1-78897-269.